Frenzy Capital — Live Market Snapshot & Analysis
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Market Analysis
🌅 Pre-Market Overview
The Hormuz escalation is real and it's reshaping the risk calculus this morning. Iran claims it hit a U.S. warship in the Strait while Trump floats a new containment strategy, and the market is doing exactly what you'd expect: selling crude hard while simultaneously bidding growth stocks and crypto. Crude is down 2.45 percent because traders are pricing in either a de-escalation or the possibility that Trump's plan stabilizes shipping lanes without a broader conflict. The Nasdaq is up 0.68 percent; the Dow is down 0.48 percent. This is a classic growth-wins-on-no-war trade, where tech benefits from lower energy costs and reduced geopolitical premium, while financials and industrials sit out.
The real tell is in the cross-asset positioning: silver is screaming higher, bonds are rallying across the curve, and the yen is weakening rather than rallying as a safe haven. This tells you the market sees geopolitical risk as manageable, not terminal. If we were truly spooked, we'd see a yen surge and gold holding firmer; instead, silver is outrunning gold while long-dated Treasuries climb. Crypto is also up meaningfully, which confirms risk appetite hasn't evaporated. The message is clear: traders believe Trump's Hormuz play either neutralizes the threat or the U.S. flexes without a direct military confrontation. Watch the Dow's weakness this morning as insurance. Cyclicals and defensives are hedging their bets, but growth is already moving on.
⚠️ Risks & Opportunities
• Nasdaq is up 0.68% while the Dow is down 0.48%, signaling that tech is pricing in a de-escalation of the Iran/Hormuz tension that sent oil down 2.45% overnight; this is a classic risk-on rotation into growth, but it's fragile if crude bounces back on any headlines.
• The 30-year bond rallying hard (up 0.30%) while equities climb tells you real yields are compressing and investors are hedging tail risk with duration; this divergence screams that the Hormuz story is keeping hot money defensive, so any confirmation of actual military conflict could trigger a violent unwind of long equity positioning.
• Russell 2000 is barely moving (up 0.22%) despite broad risk-on vibes, and with technicals already stretched after the record run, small-cap outperformance is dead; the recon battle between mega-cap tech strength and cyclical weakness is the real story at the open.
• Silver spiking 2.45% while gold flatlines is a classic inflation-hedge signal that traders are hedging geopolitical premium into the jobs report on Friday (May 8), not betting on a macro shock; copper down 0.27% confirms they don't expect demand collapse, just uncertainty.
• ISM Services PMI and JOLTS drop tomorrow will either kill the Hormuz bid or validate it; if those numbers hold up strong, the market will dump bonds and rotate back into cyclicals, crushing the Dow underperformance we are seeing right now.
• Crypto up nearly 2% overnight while equities flatline is a sideways signal, not risk-on; this suggests hedge funds are parking dry powder in Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge rather than rotating out of equities, keeping the open pressure limited but fragile.
📰 Referenced News Articles
S&P 500:
- Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow futures mixed as investors eye Trump's Hormuz plan - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
- Stock Market News, May 1, 2026: S&P 500, Nasdaq Rise to New Highs - WSJ - WSJ
- Stock Market Today: Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to retreat as Iran says it hit U.S. warship; Berkshire Hathaway, GameStop in view - MarketWatch - MarketWatch
- Stocks Waver as Carmakers Fall; Crude Oil Rises: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com - Bloomberg.com
- S&P 500 closes at a new record to usher in May as oil prices cool and Apple rises: Live updates - CNBC - CNBC
Dow Jones:
- Stock Market Today: Dow Dips But Nasdaq, Nvidia Gain; Microsoft Up After This OpenAI Deal (Live Coverage) - Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Business Daily
- Stock Market Today: Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to retreat as Iran says it hit U.S. warship; Berkshire Hathaway, GameStop in view - MarketWatch - MarketWatch
- Stock Market News: Dow Set to Open Down, S&P 500 to Gain After Trump Announces Strait of Hormuz Plan - Barron's - Barron's
- Stock futures drop as oil rises amid reports that U.S. warship turned back in Hormuz: Live updates - CNBC - CNBC
- Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow futures mixed as investors eye Trump's Hormuz plan - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
NASDAQ-100:
- Stock Market Today: Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to retreat as Iran says it hit U.S. warship; Berkshire Hathaway, GameStop in view - MarketWatch - MarketWatch
- Buying record highs looks riskier in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 than in the broader market: Chart of the Day - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
- Stock Market News: Dow Set to Open Down, S&P 500 to Gain After Trump Announces Strait of Hormuz Plan - Barron's - Barron's
- Stock Market Today, May 1: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Power to New Highs - The Motley Fool - The Motley Fool
- Stock Market News, April 30, 2026: Dow rises 790 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at records as GDP data shows the U.S. economy continues to grow; Big Tech slips; oil falls back from four-year high; Alphabet shares jump as Meta falls - MarketWatch - MarketWatch
Russell 2000:
- Russell 2000 Stocks to Avoid: DigitalOcean, Griffon, and Worthington Face Headwinds in 2026 - News and Statistics - IndexBox - IndexBox
- More key facts ahead of the 2026 Russell US Indexes reconstitution - LSEG - LSEG
- Your Complete Guide to the Russell 2000 Stock Market Index - The Motley Fool - The Motley Fool
- Buying record highs looks riskier in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 than in the broader market: Chart of the Day - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
- Russell 2000: Stocks Rally Continues but Technical Warnings Begin to Build - Investing.com UK - Investing.com UK
Sector Performance
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Options Flow Sentiment
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Most Bullish
Movers — May 4, 2026
Top Gainers
| Symbol | Price | Change | Change % | Rel Volume | Market Cap ($B) |
|---|
Biggest Losers
| Symbol | Price | Change | Change % | Rel Volume | Market Cap ($B) |
|---|
Pre-Market Gainers
| Symbol | Price | Change | Change % | Market Cap ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBTG | 8.69 | +2.76 | +46.54% | 3.10 |
| CABA | 3.47 | +0.53 | +18.03% | 0.33 |
| BB | 6.19 | +0.77 | +14.20% | 3.19 |
| CELC | 142.00 | +16.35 | +13.01% | 6.07 |
| EBAY | 113.54 | +9.47 | +9.10% | 46.21 |
| BZAI | 2.26 | +0.23 | +11.33% | 0.25 |
| INNV | 9.19 | +0.87 | +10.46% | 1.13 |
| LWLG | 17.89 | +1.62 | +9.96% | 2.45 |
| NICE | 123.40 | +10.50 | +9.30% | 6.60 |
| KZIA | 14.87 | +1.48 | +11.05% | 0.15 |
| MDV | 17.80 | +1.71 | +10.63% | 0.17 |
| ADCT | 4.19 | +0.36 | +9.40% | 0.49 |
| OUST | 28.65 | +2.20 | +8.32% | 1.68 |
| ONCY | 0.95 | +0.08 | +9.18% | 0.10 |
| PKX | 84.20 | +5.49 | +6.97% | 23.81 |
| GCTS | 1.73 | +0.14 | +8.75% | 0.12 |
| LOT | 1.40 | +0.10 | +7.69% | 0.84 |
| ALSN | 140.00 | +8.77 | +6.68% | 10.91 |
| ALXO | 1.82 | +0.13 | +7.69% | 0.23 |
| ALMU | 27.45 | +1.87 | +7.30% | 0.46 |
| VNDA | 7.51 | +0.51 | +7.32% | 0.42 |
| INTT | 19.98 | +1.33 | +7.13% | 0.23 |
| BAER | 2.20 | +0.15 | +7.32% | 0.12 |
| MRAM | 22.89 | +1.40 | +6.51% | 0.50 |
| RDNT | 60.16 | +3.31 | +5.82% | 4.45 |
| APYX | 3.27 | +0.21 | +6.86% | 0.13 |
| KRYS | 281.00 | +14.96 | +5.62% | 7.83 |
| MIRM | 102.00 | +5.47 | +5.67% | 5.89 |
| CRCL | 104.99 | +5.29 | +5.31% | 24.65 |
| COLL | 36.20 | +1.88 | +5.48% | 1.11 |
| IMOS | 47.98 | +2.38 | +5.22% | 1.59 |
| STX | 757.98 | +31.05 | +4.27% | 163.00 |
| IVA | 5.23 | +0.26 | +5.23% | 1.03 |
| DRTS | 8.98 | +0.44 | +5.15% | 0.75 |
| MICC | 15.53 | +0.68 | +4.58% | 9.09 |
| NSSC | 49.00 | +2.28 | +4.88% | 1.67 |
| NBR | 105.83 | +4.86 | +4.81% | 1.61 |
| LQDA | 39.90 | +1.76 | +4.63% | 3.39 |
| JBLU | 5.08 | +0.22 | +4.53% | 1.81 |
| NXTT | 1.63 | +0.08 | +5.16% | 0.12 |
| XRX | 2.83 | +0.13 | +4.81% | 0.35 |
| EXOD | 8.39 | +0.39 | +4.88% | 0.24 |
| WTI | 4.32 | +0.19 | +4.60% | 0.61 |
| RRR | 55.01 | +2.23 | +4.23% | 3.09 |
| ASIC | 20.50 | +0.87 | +4.43% | 0.94 |
| SIMO | 243.64 | +9.12 | +3.89% | 7.97 |
| MRLN | 10.72 | +0.44 | +4.28% | 0.87 |
| BTGO | 10.86 | +0.43 | +4.12% | 1.20 |
| COHR | 340.84 | +11.34 | +3.44% | 61.78 |
| LITE | 981.50 | +31.57 | +3.32% | 67.83 |
| INN | 5.40 | +0.21 | +4.05% | 0.56 |
| EVO | 3.21 | +0.12 | +3.88% | 1.10 |
| VENU | 4.14 | +0.17 | +4.16% | 0.24 |
| HKD | 1.83 | +0.07 | +3.98% | 0.55 |
| CYTK | 65.57 | +2.22 | +3.50% | 7.87 |
| FELE | 103.01 | +3.57 | +3.59% | 4.39 |
| MAAS | 9.99 | +0.35 | +3.63% | 3.42 |
| ULCC | 4.15 | +0.15 | +3.84% | 0.92 |
| MU | 557.83 | +15.62 | +2.88% | 611.47 |
| NBIS | 159.44 | +4.94 | +3.20% | 39.09 |
| CECO | 76.97 | +2.67 | +3.59% | 2.67 |
| POET | 7.58 | +0.27 | +3.69% | 1.12 |
| CXDO | 7.84 | +0.30 | +3.98% | 0.24 |
| CNCK | 1.84 | +0.07 | +3.95% | 0.24 |
| FOSL | 4.49 | +0.17 | +3.94% | 0.25 |
| NVEC | 90.52 | +3.32 | +3.81% | 0.42 |
| PURR | 6.50 | +0.23 | +3.67% | 0.78 |
| PBYI | 7.77 | +0.28 | +3.74% | 0.38 |
| PICS | 11.90 | +0.40 | +3.48% | 1.49 |
| TV | 3.00 | +0.10 | +3.45% | 1.53 |
| ANNA | 3.68 | +0.14 | +3.83% | 0.14 |
| INDV | 38.87 | +1.21 | +3.21% | 4.56 |
| COIN | 196.78 | +5.53 | +2.89% | 50.50 |
| SNDX | 19.75 | +0.64 | +3.35% | 1.69 |
| MSTR | 182.24 | +5.07 | +2.86% | 62.08 |
| MX | 3.84 | +0.14 | +3.78% | 0.13 |
| IX | 34.00 | +0.95 | +2.87% | 36.30 |
| DWSN | 3.57 | +0.13 | +3.78% | 0.11 |
| OTF | 11.95 | +0.36 | +3.11% | 5.35 |
| OPFI | 9.85 | +0.34 | +3.54% | 0.26 |
| CXT | 46.01 | +1.41 | +3.16% | 2.57 |
| OABI | 1.45 | +0.05 | +3.57% | 0.20 |
| PLTR | 147.77 | +3.70 | +2.57% | 345.36 |
| NNBR | 2.55 | +0.09 | +3.66% | 0.12 |
| GETY | 0.84 | +0.03 | +3.45% | 0.34 |
| IREN | 46.95 | +1.29 | +2.82% | 15.15 |
| QUIK | 16.87 | +0.55 | +3.37% | 0.29 |
| FTAI | 246.53 | +6.58 | +2.74% | 24.61 |
| AAOI | 188.63 | +5.12 | +2.79% | 14.69 |
| CMBT | 14.13 | +0.40 | +2.91% | 3.98 |
| TYRA | 35.06 | +1.02 | +3.00% | 2.02 |
| ISSC | 22.00 | +0.69 | +3.24% | 0.38 |
| HCAT | 1.50 | +0.05 | +3.45% | 0.11 |
| AMKR | 73.00 | +1.91 | +2.69% | 17.62 |
| KRC | 34.60 | +0.96 | +2.85% | 3.91 |
| MITK | 14.99 | +0.45 | +3.09% | 0.66 |
| SRTA | 5.24 | +0.16 | +3.15% | 0.44 |
| LXRX | 1.68 | +0.05 | +3.07% | 0.72 |
| NTLA | 13.65 | +0.39 | +2.94% | 1.58 |
| TLS | 4.56 | +0.14 | +3.17% | 0.34 |
| FWDI | 4.56 | +0.14 | +3.17% | 0.34 |
| IOVA | 3.50 | +0.10 | +2.91% | 1.52 |
| CORZ | 20.90 | +0.55 | +2.70% | 6.42 |
| RVMD | 142.99 | +3.51 | +2.52% | 29.65 |
| VPG | 62.00 | +1.78 | +2.96% | 0.80 |
| FPS | 40.25 | +1.03 | +2.63% | 9.57 |
| SNDK | 1214.60 | +27.60 | +2.33% | 175.68 |
| TREE | 39.96 | +1.15 | +2.96% | 0.54 |
| CVI | 34.18 | +0.90 | +2.70% | 3.35 |
| RYDE | 1.34 | +0.04 | +3.08% | 0.22 |
| CURR | 3.51 | +0.10 | +3.04% | 0.26 |
| GLW | 161.87 | +3.61 | +2.28% | 135.95 |
| EVER | 14.91 | +0.42 | +2.90% | 0.51 |
| ORCL | 175.50 | +3.67 | +2.14% | 494.19 |
| CRWV | 121.68 | +2.67 | +2.24% | 62.86 |
| GFS | 66.38 | +1.47 | +2.26% | 35.64 |
| SIBN | 13.57 | +0.36 | +2.73% | 0.58 |
| AIRJ | 3.23 | +0.09 | +2.86% | 0.22 |
| BMM | 7.48 | +0.19 | +2.61% | 0.65 |
| FFAI | 0.42 | +0.01 | +2.83% | 0.12 |
| SKYX | 1.10 | +0.03 | +2.80% | 0.14 |
| TOYO | 13.04 | +0.33 | +2.60% | 0.48 |
| XRPN | 10.63 | +0.27 | +2.61% | 0.33 |
| ERO | 25.80 | +0.59 | +2.34% | 2.63 |
| ASX | 32.23 | +0.64 | +2.03% | 69.31 |
| HIVE | 2.49 | +0.06 | +2.47% | 0.62 |
| TRAK | 10.20 | +0.26 | +2.62% | 0.18 |
| VG | 12.99 | +0.26 | +2.04% | 31.60 |
| CF | 125.25 | +2.56 | +2.09% | 18.85 |
| ABTC | 1.24 | +0.03 | +2.35% | 1.28 |
| MAIR | 41.00 | +0.83 | +2.07% | 20.14 |
| NMRA | 2.50 | +0.06 | +2.46% | 0.45 |
| MTDR | 63.70 | +1.34 | +2.15% | 7.75 |
| GRO | 2.77 | +0.07 | +2.59% | 0.15 |
| BTE | 5.09 | +0.11 | +2.21% | 3.68 |
| ATMU | 53.80 | +1.15 | +2.18% | 4.30 |
| ARDX | 7.04 | +0.16 | +2.27% | 1.70 |
| KGS | 70.00 | +1.46 | +2.13% | 6.05 |
| ENIC | 4.56 | +0.09 | +2.09% | 6.18 |
| EQNR | 40.45 | +0.74 | +1.86% | 98.96 |
| BEKE | 17.40 | +0.34 | +1.99% | 19.03 |
| SPIR | 18.60 | +0.42 | +2.31% | 0.70 |
| EBS | 8.67 | +0.20 | +2.35% | 0.44 |
| ADEA | 33.70 | +0.70 | +2.12% | 3.65 |
| HOOD | 75.04 | +1.38 | +1.87% | 66.33 |
| RIOT | 18.88 | +0.38 | +2.05% | 7.01 |
| XXI | 9.13 | +0.19 | +2.13% | 3.10 |
| AVLN | 30.50 | +0.66 | +2.21% | 1.25 |
| USAR | 26.87 | +0.54 | +2.05% | 5.74 |
| PSIX | 72.03 | +1.53 | +2.17% | 1.63 |
| GEOS | 9.54 | +0.23 | +2.47% | 0.12 |
| USGO | 13.55 | +0.32 | +2.42% | 0.18 |
| FN | 720.00 | +13.47 | +1.91% | 25.31 |
| BNTX | 99.40 | +1.86 | +1.91% | 24.67 |
| NUCL | 11.45 | +0.26 | +2.32% | 0.33 |
| CTNM | 13.50 | +0.30 | +2.27% | 0.49 |
| OGI | 1.45 | +0.03 | +2.38% | 0.20 |
| WS | 40.00 | +0.83 | +2.12% | 1.99 |
| BE | 295.75 | +5.23 | +1.80% | 82.64 |
| VIST | 73.05 | +1.41 | +1.97% | 7.54 |
| ALIT | 0.80 | +0.02 | +2.25% | 0.41 |
| THRY | 3.92 | +0.09 | +2.35% | 0.17 |
| BABA | 133.71 | +2.21 | +1.68% | 315.47 |
| OI | 9.69 | +0.20 | +2.11% | 1.45 |
| RCKT | 3.64 | +0.08 | +2.25% | 0.39 |
| FORM | 140.00 | +2.63 | +1.91% | 10.71 |
| AEHR | 94.94 | +1.87 | +2.01% | 2.93 |
| CIFR | 17.37 | +0.33 | +1.94% | 6.92 |
| AMTX | 3.60 | +0.08 | +2.27% | 0.24 |
| VET | 13.47 | +0.27 | +2.05% | 2.01 |
| MP | 67.89 | +1.26 | +1.88% | 11.84 |
| STLA | 7.26 | +0.13 | +1.82% | 20.66 |
| PDYN | 6.48 | +0.14 | +2.21% | 0.30 |
| RDZN | 2.27 | +0.05 | +2.25% | 0.18 |
| SMRT | 1.39 | +0.03 | +2.21% | 0.26 |
| MARA | 11.68 | +0.22 | +1.91% | 4.36 |
| FET | 59.95 | +1.21 | +2.06% | 0.67 |
| LION | 12.89 | +0.24 | +1.90% | 3.67 |
| CC | 28.25 | +0.52 | +1.88% | 4.16 |
| BMNR | 22.27 | +0.39 | +1.78% | 12.46 |
| RIGL | 30.00 | +0.60 | +2.04% | 0.54 |
| BCYC | 4.90 | +0.10 | +2.08% | 0.34 |
| TTAM | 17.10 | +0.31 | +1.85% | 3.10 |
| EDIT | 2.96 | +0.06 | +2.07% | 0.28 |
| CCCC | 2.98 | +0.06 | +2.05% | 0.32 |
| MT | 57.78 | +0.93 | +1.64% | 43.27 |
| EPAM | 114.31 | +1.98 | +1.77% | 5.93 |
| KRNY | 8.29 | +0.16 | +1.97% | 0.51 |
| TTD | 24.65 | +0.41 | +1.69% | 11.40 |
| SMCI | 27.54 | +0.45 | +1.66% | 16.27 |
| PHG | 26.59 | +0.43 | +1.63% | 24.89 |
| LOGI | 101.14 | +1.65 | +1.66% | 14.58 |
| GLXY | 28.60 | +0.49 | +1.73% | 5.39 |
| PARR | 66.50 | +1.15 | +1.76% | 3.23 |
| CRBU | 1.91 | +0.04 | +2.02% | 0.18 |
| AIP | 29.48 | +0.53 | +1.83% | 1.33 |
| SUPX | 7.83 | +0.15 | +1.95% | 0.33 |
| GENI | 4.43 | +0.08 | +1.84% | 1.12 |
| LIFE | 18.99 | +0.34 | +1.82% | 1.17 |
| SGC | 11.75 | +0.23 | +2.00% | 0.18 |
Pre-Market Losers
| Symbol | Price | Change | Change % | Market Cap ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XNDU | 14.74 | -21.38 | -59.19% | 10.78 |
| PAY | 23.82 | -3.94 | -14.19% | 3.49 |
| DVLT | 0.64 | -0.10 | -13.96% | 0.52 |
| TORO | 6.80 | -0.88 | -11.46% | 0.22 |
| NBTX | 32.05 | -3.07 | -8.74% | 1.70 |
| CCOI | 21.20 | -1.96 | -8.46% | 1.16 |
| SAFX | 0.46 | -0.05 | -9.03% | 0.15 |
| NCLH | 17.46 | -1.35 | -7.18% | 8.64 |
| COAG | 31.39 | -2.61 | -7.68% | 1.44 |
| NXDR | 1.53 | -0.12 | -7.27% | 0.62 |
| DH | 0.92 | -0.07 | -7.22% | 0.10 |
| SNY | 43.67 | -2.41 | -5.23% | 110.40 |
| CTW | 2.67 | -0.20 | -6.97% | 0.18 |
| PRLD | 4.40 | -0.30 | -6.38% | 0.37 |
| VALN | 5.02 | -0.33 | -6.17% | 0.46 |
| HYPR | 1.75 | -0.12 | -6.42% | 0.18 |
| EOLS | 5.00 | -0.33 | -6.19% | 0.35 |
| ENOV | 22.27 | -1.35 | -5.72% | 1.36 |
| CANG | 0.44 | -0.03 | -6.16% | 0.19 |
| WALD | 0.90 | -0.06 | -6.26% | 0.12 |
| MINE | 2.70 | -0.16 | -5.59% | 0.19 |
| TWST | 57.70 | -2.70 | -4.47% | 3.70 |
| VITL | 13.50 | -0.68 | -4.80% | 0.61 |
| SHMD | 6.06 | -0.31 | -4.87% | 0.37 |
| GNLX | 2.60 | -0.14 | -5.11% | 0.12 |
| CSQ | 18.83 | -0.85 | -4.34% | 3.16 |
| AXSM | 198.08 | -8.45 | -4.09% | 10.62 |
| SYRE | 66.59 | -2.83 | -4.08% | 5.99 |
| OIO | 2.00 | -0.09 | -4.31% | 0.73 |
| BBVA | 21.27 | -0.73 | -3.32% | 122.79 |
| DNA | 9.30 | -0.40 | -4.12% | 0.63 |
| NVX | 0.72 | -0.03 | -4.41% | 0.16 |
| PS | 36.65 | -1.34 | -3.53% | 15.20 |
| GTN | 5.43 | -0.23 | -4.06% | 0.58 |
| HSLV | 5.62 | -0.23 | -3.91% | 1.19 |
| TOI | 3.89 | -0.16 | -3.95% | 0.40 |
| NFGC | 2.02 | -0.08 | -3.81% | 0.81 |
| CXM | 5.00 | -0.19 | -3.64% | 1.29 |
| CRMD | 7.50 | -0.29 | -3.70% | 0.61 |
| TYGO | 4.63 | -0.18 | -3.72% | 0.36 |
| CTGO | 22.30 | -0.83 | -3.59% | 0.71 |
| ANIK | 14.30 | -0.55 | -3.70% | 0.20 |
| TKC | 6.15 | -0.20 | -3.15% | 5.53 |
| EMPD | 4.71 | -0.18 | -3.70% | 0.14 |
| ASPN | 4.12 | -0.15 | -3.51% | 0.35 |
| OFIX | 11.50 | -0.41 | -3.44% | 0.48 |
| FLR | 51.42 | -1.58 | -2.98% | 7.58 |
| EFSC | 57.05 | -1.84 | -3.12% | 2.15 |
| SPTX | 19.20 | -0.64 | -3.23% | 1.01 |
| STEX | 1.14 | -0.04 | -3.58% | 0.12 |
| GUTS | 0.67 | -0.02 | -3.56% | 0.11 |
| UL | 58.22 | -1.54 | -2.58% | 130.51 |
| SLQT | 0.85 | -0.03 | -3.48% | 0.16 |
| GME | 25.79 | -0.74 | -2.79% | 11.90 |
| IONR | 3.92 | -0.13 | -3.21% | 0.31 |
| ELMT | 15.16 | -0.49 | -3.13% | 0.47 |
| RDY | 13.35 | -0.37 | -2.70% | 11.42 |
| EVC | 3.71 | -0.12 | -3.13% | 0.35 |
| WOLF | 35.70 | -1.06 | -2.88% | 1.78 |
| ADT | 7.35 | -0.20 | -2.70% | 6.09 |
| SAN | 11.79 | -0.28 | -2.32% | 173.81 |
| PRG | 35.20 | -0.99 | -2.74% | 1.45 |
| MAMA | 13.75 | -0.40 | -2.83% | 0.58 |
| TLSA | 1.30 | -0.04 | -2.99% | 0.17 |
| NICM | 6.42 | -0.20 | -3.02% | 0.13 |
| EVTL | 2.36 | -0.07 | -2.88% | 0.31 |
| LZ | 6.56 | -0.18 | -2.67% | 1.17 |
| KIDS | 15.19 | -0.44 | -2.82% | 0.40 |
| VTIX | 3.59 | -0.11 | -2.97% | 0.12 |
| SABR | 1.80 | -0.05 | -2.69% | 0.73 |
| CSHR | 6.03 | -0.17 | -2.74% | 0.41 |
| TUYA | 2.30 | -0.06 | -2.54% | 1.45 |
| IPX | 32.60 | -0.86 | -2.57% | 1.14 |
| RGC | 28.46 | -0.66 | -2.27% | 14.40 |
| DAKT | 19.20 | -0.50 | -2.54% | 0.95 |
| ZKH | 2.99 | -0.08 | -2.61% | 0.49 |
| TRX | 1.11 | -0.03 | -2.63% | 0.37 |
| LOPE | 159.63 | -3.78 | -2.31% | 4.35 |
| ANGX | 3.07 | -0.08 | -2.54% | 0.59 |
| NUTX | 136.17 | -3.40 | -2.44% | 0.97 |
| CAPL | 20.75 | -0.52 | -2.44% | 0.81 |
| ERIC | 11.52 | -0.24 | -2.04% | 39.17 |
| VAL | 100.00 | -2.23 | -2.18% | 7.08 |
| IMSR | 7.40 | -0.18 | -2.37% | 0.81 |
| CLPT | 11.09 | -0.28 | -2.48% | 0.34 |
| DMRC | 7.52 | -0.20 | -2.57% | 0.17 |
| EGHT | 2.38 | -0.06 | -2.46% | 0.34 |
| ASML | 1401.70 | -25.32 | -1.77% | 550.00 |
| NEWP | 5.50 | -0.13 | -2.31% | 1.04 |
| BX | 124.00 | -2.35 | -1.86% | 155.43 |
| EPC | 22.04 | -0.52 | -2.30% | 1.05 |
| RR | 2.47 | -0.06 | -2.37% | 0.57 |
| HIT | 1.51 | -0.04 | -2.58% | 0.10 |
| ARTV | 10.54 | -0.26 | -2.41% | 0.27 |
| BVN | 31.78 | -0.66 | -2.04% | 8.24 |
| ACIU | 2.91 | -0.07 | -2.35% | 0.30 |
| ORGO | 2.51 | -0.06 | -2.33% | 0.33 |
| FDX | 386.64 | -7.03 | -1.79% | 93.93 |
| ITRG | 2.63 | -0.06 | -2.23% | 0.54 |
| AVR | 6.22 | -0.14 | -2.20% | 0.62 |
| AWK | 125.01 | -2.37 | -1.86% | 24.87 |
| AMCI | 6.63 | -0.16 | -2.36% | 0.15 |
| HAFC | 29.52 | -0.65 | -2.15% | 0.90 |
| MTLS | 5.50 | -0.13 | -2.26% | 0.33 |
| JKS | 23.60 | -0.51 | -2.12% | 1.26 |
| BUD | 74.27 | -1.29 | -1.71% | 146.43 |
| VOD | 15.86 | -0.29 | -1.80% | 37.22 |
| RCL | 260.95 | -4.60 | -1.73% | 71.22 |
| RRX | 209.08 | -3.94 | -1.85% | 14.18 |
| THM | 2.30 | -0.05 | -2.13% | 0.61 |
| NABL | 5.20 | -0.11 | -2.07% | 1.00 |
| BEP | 32.73 | -0.62 | -1.86% | 10.20 |
| RIO | 98.92 | -1.66 | -1.65% | 163.56 |
| HYMC | 37.98 | -0.75 | -1.94% | 3.54 |
| IHRT | 6.20 | -0.13 | -2.05% | 0.96 |
| NTES | 116.00 | -1.98 | -1.68% | 75.29 |
| DDI | 10.76 | -0.23 | -2.08% | 0.54 |
| SLI | 3.88 | -0.08 | -2.02% | 0.96 |
| NG | 7.90 | -0.15 | -1.86% | 3.53 |
| CTOS | 9.91 | -0.19 | -1.88% | 2.30 |
| ARWR | 73.50 | -1.31 | -1.75% | 10.48 |
| VIK | 80.15 | -1.35 | -1.66% | 36.35 |
| BBBY | 5.33 | -0.11 | -2.02% | 0.40 |
| RACE | 335.76 | -5.50 | -1.61% | 60.20 |
| PACK | 5.50 | -0.11 | -1.96% | 0.48 |
| IDR | 42.89 | -0.84 | -1.92% | 0.69 |
| FSM | 9.31 | -0.17 | -1.79% | 2.89 |
| POWI | 72.03 | -1.29 | -1.76% | 4.08 |
| EMR | 135.32 | -2.13 | -1.55% | 77.25 |
| NWPX | 105.00 | -2.00 | -1.87% | 1.03 |
| ZENA | 2.41 | -0.05 | -2.03% | 0.19 |
| GRRR | 15.13 | -0.30 | -1.94% | 0.43 |
| ALLO | 2.11 | -0.04 | -1.86% | 0.74 |
| LUXE | 8.84 | -0.16 | -1.78% | 1.24 |
| VFC | 18.70 | -0.31 | -1.63% | 7.44 |
| NAMM | 1.96 | -0.04 | -2.00% | 0.11 |
| TROO | 4.29 | -0.08 | -1.83% | 0.53 |
| XIFR | 10.52 | -0.19 | -1.77% | 1.01 |
| PRQR | 1.52 | -0.03 | -1.94% | 0.16 |
| CCL | 26.26 | -0.40 | -1.50% | 36.93 |
| SLNH | 1.55 | -0.03 | -1.90% | 0.22 |
| ANRO | 24.50 | -0.44 | -1.76% | 0.87 |
| PROK | 1.89 | -0.04 | -1.87% | 0.27 |
| AVXL | 3.26 | -0.06 | -1.81% | 0.31 |
| WHR | 55.67 | -0.90 | -1.59% | 3.65 |
| GAU | 2.28 | -0.04 | -1.72% | 0.61 |
| SHAZ | 41.50 | -0.71 | -1.68% | 0.68 |
| RMNI | 3.98 | -0.07 | -1.73% | 0.37 |
| TOWN | 35.18 | -0.55 | -1.54% | 3.26 |
| CLYM | 8.76 | -0.15 | -1.68% | 0.43 |
| NEM | 107.20 | -1.42 | -1.31% | 115.96 |
| CHGG | 1.10 | -0.02 | -1.79% | 0.13 |
| TTI | 9.30 | -0.15 | -1.59% | 1.28 |
| PEBO | 34.08 | -0.55 | -1.59% | 1.24 |
| CGAU | 17.01 | -0.26 | -1.51% | 3.43 |
| NKTX | 2.88 | -0.05 | -1.71% | 0.21 |
| CFR | 138.36 | -2.00 | -1.42% | 8.81 |
| MUX | 20.97 | -0.33 | -1.55% | 1.27 |
| AG | 19.57 | -0.28 | -1.41% | 9.80 |
| NRDY | 0.88 | -0.02 | -1.75% | 0.11 |
| HAFN | 8.79 | -0.13 | -1.46% | 4.46 |
| SBSW | 11.90 | -0.17 | -1.41% | 8.54 |
| TCOM | 53.50 | -0.72 | -1.33% | 34.14 |
| CDE | 17.41 | -0.24 | -1.35% | 18.27 |
| TMC | 5.32 | -0.08 | -1.48% | 2.34 |
| ASM | 6.48 | -0.10 | -1.52% | 1.11 |
| DBVT | 19.57 | -0.30 | -1.51% | 1.18 |
| FRO | 36.50 | -0.51 | -1.38% | 8.24 |
| AURA | 6.90 | -0.11 | -1.57% | 0.45 |
| ENTG | 140.43 | -1.86 | -1.31% | 21.66 |
| AEG | 8.12 | -0.11 | -1.34% | 12.45 |
| CME | 286.00 | -3.54 | -1.22% | 104.92 |
| DFDV | 4.48 | -0.07 | -1.61% | 0.13 |
| SVM | 12.09 | -0.17 | -1.39% | 2.71 |
| CDLR | 27.85 | -0.39 | -1.38% | 2.72 |
| AHG | 2.11 | -0.03 | -1.40% | 1.83 |
| RLX | 2.16 | -0.03 | -1.37% | 2.68 |
| INFY | 12.33 | -0.15 | -1.20% | 50.50 |
| DB | 30.74 | -0.37 | -1.19% | 59.52 |
| VTEX | 3.86 | -0.06 | -1.45% | 0.67 |
| KD | 14.17 | -0.19 | -1.35% | 3.24 |
| MEI | 8.50 | -0.13 | -1.51% | 0.31 |
| MDA | 30.52 | -0.41 | -1.33% | 4.26 |
| GMAB | 26.12 | -0.33 | -1.25% | 16.24 |
| GNL | 9.40 | -0.13 | -1.36% | 2.03 |
| VSAT | 64.29 | -0.83 | -1.27% | 8.85 |
| HBM | 22.51 | -0.29 | -1.27% | 9.06 |
| IMUX | 9.50 | -0.15 | -1.55% | 0.13 |
| ING | 28.22 | -0.33 | -1.16% | 82.00 |
| HYLN | 2.01 | -0.03 | -1.47% | 0.36 |
| ORKA | 61.76 | -0.82 | -1.30% | 3.75 |
| PLAB | 49.50 | -0.66 | -1.32% | 2.96 |
| OVID | 2.75 | -0.04 | -1.43% | 0.48 |
| D | 63.21 | -0.73 | -1.15% | 56.20 |
| PL | 36.45 | -0.45 | -1.22% | 12.77 |
| VRDN | 13.24 | -0.18 | -1.34% | 1.38 |
| BILI | 21.68 | -0.27 | -1.23% | 9.14 |
| REAX | 2.10 | -0.03 | -1.41% | 0.46 |
| IPGP | 121.33 | -1.54 | -1.25% | 5.22 |
| UPWK | 10.35 | -0.14 | -1.33% | 1.29 |
Upcoming Economic Events
| Date | Impact | Title | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Low | Factory Orders m/m | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | Low | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-04 | Low | Loan Officer Survey | ||
| 2026-05-05 | Low | Trade Balance | -59.0B | -57.3B |
| 2026-05-05 | Low | Final Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 |
| 2026-05-05 | High | ISM Services PMI | 53.8 | 54.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | High | JOLTS Job Openings | 6.87M | 6.88M |
| 2026-05-05 | Medium | New Home Sales | 587K | |
| 2026-05-05 | Low | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-05 | Low | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism | 42.0 | 42.8 |
| 2026-05-05 | Low | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-05 | Low | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | ||
| 2026-05-06 | Medium | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 90K | 62K |
| 2026-05-06 | Low | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-06 | Low | Crude Oil Inventories | -6.2M | |
| 2026-05-06 | Low | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-07 | Low | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | -78.0% | |
| 2026-05-07 | Medium | Unemployment Claims | 203K | 189K |
| 2026-05-07 | Low | Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| 2026-05-07 | Low | Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| 2026-05-07 | Low | Construction Spending m/m | -0.3% | |
| 2026-05-07 | Low | Natural Gas Storage | 79B | |
| 2026-05-07 | Low | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-07 | Low | Consumer Credit m/m | 12.5B | 9.5B |
| 2026-05-07 | Low | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Low | FOMC Member Cook Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-08 | High | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | High | Non-Farm Employment Change | 60K | 178K |
| 2026-05-08 | High | Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 2026-05-08 | Medium | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 49.3 | 47.6 |
| 2026-05-08 | Medium | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 4.8% | |
| 2026-05-08 | Low | Final Wholesale Inventories m/m | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 2026-05-08 | Medium | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Low | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Low | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Low | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks |
Upcoming Earnings
| Date | Time | Symbol | Exp Move % | Exp Move $ | Fiscal Qtr | EPS Forecast | Last Year EPS | # Estimates | Market Cap |
|---|
Rates
| Name | Rate | 1 Day | 14 Day | 30 Day | Last Changed | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Month | 3.59 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 4-Week | 3.61 | 0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 1-Year | 3.57 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 6-Month | 3.58 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 2-Year | 3.88 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 5-Year | 4.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 10-Year | 4.4 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 30-Year | 4.98 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-30 |
| 10-Year Minus 2-Year | 0.51 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-01 |
| Federal Funds | 3.64 | 2025-12-10 | 2026-04-30 | |||
| Federal Funds Target Upper | 3.75 | 2025-12-10 | 2026-05-03 | |||
| 30Y Jumbo Fixed Mortgage | 6.432 | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.11 | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 |
| 15Y Fixed Mortgage | 5.64 | 0.06 | -0.01 | -0.11 | 2026-04-23 | 2026-04-30 |
| 30Y Fixed Mortgage | 6.3 | 0.07 | -0.08 | 2026-04-23 | 2026-04-30 | |
| Credit Card Interest | 21.0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.39 | 2025-11-01 | 2026-02-01 |
Fed Watch (/ZQ Fed Funds futures)
Full curve →
Market-implied probabilities from /ZQ futures. Current EFFR estimate: 3.67%.
Jun 17, 2026
/ZQM26 · implied 3.59%
-8 bp
25bp cut
32%
Hold
68%
Jul 29, 2026
/ZQN26 · implied 3.61%
+2 bp
Hold
92%
25bp hike
8%
Sep 16, 2026
/ZQU26 · implied 3.60%
-1 bp
25bp cut
4%
Hold
96%
Kalshi vs /ZQ Divergences (top mispricings)
All divergences →
Scanning Fed decision markets for mispricings...
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Ten Empirically-Grounded Prediction Market Trading Strategies
2026-04-14
A technical survey of ten research-backed strategies for trading prediction markets, spanning favourite-longshot bias, cross-platform arbitrage, LP underwriting, combinatorial arbitrage, and dynamic hedging.
prediction-marketstrading-strategiespolymarketkalshiarbitragehedgingmarket-microstructure